1/8 – Rob’s “Gray/Gloomy & Wet” Monday Morning Forecast

The main focus through the next 12 hours will be showers and thunderstorms moving through the forecast area and the potential for FLASH FLOODING. An upper level trough is currently moving southeast into Louisiana and Mississippi, amplifying while it’s doing so with a large swath of moderate/heavy rainfall and embedded t-storms exists. Radar imagery shows this cluster extending from SW Mississippi to ~150 miles SW of Lake Charles. Some of the more intense cells are producing instant rainfall rates of 3-5″/hr. Based on the orientation of some lines, a quick 1 to 2 inches will be possible across the viewing area as this cluster moves through. Thus, FLASH FLOOD WATCH will remain in effect through this morning.

A low concern for rotating cells continues to exist, mainly along the coastal parishes of Louisiana moving to the east towards our viewing area. Little to no instability will certainly be a limiting factor, but such values suggests at least one or 2 weak tornadoes are at least possible and worth mentioning.

Upper ridge will be building in mid-week which will moderate temperatures considerably. I have increased previous forecast highs to right around 70 degrees for much of the area. Models are still in fairly good agreement on the next system coming in Thursday/Friday. Showers will move in and out relatively quickly and with less intensity than today. In addition, it still appears that multiple shortwaves will be following in the footsteps of the first. This will result in possibly another extended period of below normal temperatures. At this time, doesn’t appear to be as cold as the previous, but possibly at least 4 days with highs in the 40s.

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