6/20 – The Chief’s “Flash Flood Watch” Afternoon Forecast

With a weak cold front overhead and drier airmass, showers and thunderstorms will pop a little later this afternoon. The activity will get started farther NW and move SE. This will likely be helped along by outflow boundaries again interacting with this surface front. All of this new activity should do much of the same as yesterday’s has done with heavy rainfall and the potential for severe t-storms. The training issue with heavy rain will remain a real threat today due to the slow movement of the front.

The FLASH FLOOD watch will remain where it is but will be extended through 10 PM since the storms that develop during the late afternoon look to continue well into the evening hours. By Wednesday morning the surface front should have moved to the coast and the same style of convective bursts look to continue near the coast and over the near shore waters. But the majority of land areas could be almost rain free with somewhat drier air. Heat warnings will likely go away for at least several days. But advisory may continue for a portion of the area.

The stalled surface front will stay along the coast Wed night, with it moving back north Thursday. This could bring thunderstorms back to the area starting over the sound then moving into south Mississippi Friday and possibly Saturday. This front will become diffuse with time but will have moved to the NE by Sun into Mon.