9/12 – Rob Knight’s “Tropical Watch” Morning Forecast
This forecast is competitive between a strengthening are of high-pressure to our NE and a weak surface trough (tropical wave) over the gulf. Florence will eventually squeeze the Bermuda High causing it to extend farther SW through the end of the workweek.
The surface trough over the gulf has a 50 & 70% chance of formation over 48 hrs & 5 days respectively.
At the moment, the strongest precip chances looks to orient along and west of the Mississippi River today through much of the remainder of the week. This is not to say there will be no activity east of the river, it just won’t be as much
As the ridge builds southwestward, there should be enough mid-level dry air for thunderstorms to begin producing some higher wind speeds starting Thursday through Saturday. If Florence moves southwest after making landfall, the high-pressure would strengthen further due to the interaction between Florence and the trough (tropical disturbance) to the west. This would cause a strong subsiding air by Sunday essentially capping the atmosphere cutting rain chances way down from Sunday through mid-next week.