7/22 – Rob’s “Summertime Pattern” Thursday Morning Forecast

A much drier trend is already beginning to take hold with less than 20% coverage for showers/t-storms. The upper level weakness continues to hold over the mid-Atlantic and northeast with upper level high-pressure in place over the nation’s mid-section. Our area continues to lie on the fence in between these two large scale features. Weak frontal boundary draped along the tail end of the trough axis continues to wash out and lose its characteristics with each passing day. High-pressure will slowly build eastward through Friday as this weakness moves off the east coast over the next 48 hours. T-storms will be present today but mainly scattered in the afternoon hours. Hot summertime temperatures will be found through the region.

A disturbance will sweep though the Great Lakes on Saturday and the upper-level high-pressure will edge back to the west over the weekend. This will bring an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the weekend. Very little change to overall pattern early next week as a massive ridge lies over the nation’s heartland. A weak backdoor frontal boundary will move into the southeast and mid-south Monday into Tuesday. Depending on how far south the boundary gets before eroding this could bring an increase to shower and t-storm activity early next week. This boundary will stall and washes out through mid-week with at or near climo temps and precip chances.

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