12/29 – Payton’s Friday Evening Forecsat
With high pressure over the area today, most areas will see
considerable sunshine today. Unfortunately, it won`t last past
today. The high will move quickly to the east and be over the
Atlantic Coast Saturday. Low pressure will develop along the old
frontal boundary off the coast, spreading moisture back into the
area. While most precipitation will remain off the coast, still
good chances of precipitation in the forecast for Saturday night
and Sunday. As a strong shortwave moves through the Great Lakes
Sunday, another surge of cold air, the coldest of the season so
far, will arrive in the area by afternoon. It will be a race
between the precipitation departing and the cold air arriving, but
do not expect any freezing temperatures prior to sunset on Sunday.
Trending toward the warmer end of temperature guidance for the
most part through Sunday.
The watchword for the first week of the new year will be…COLD.
Probably the coldest in at least 4 years.
We cannot absolutely rule out rain possibly mixing with a little
snow as it ends in a few areas in northern areas going into Sunday evening, but no
accumulations are expected. Will road surfaces have sufficient
time to dry before surface temperatures fall below freezing? For
now, it looks like there should be, but we will need to keep
monitoring this. Main threat of this on Sunday night/Monday
morning will be north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. Monday
won`t see a lot of temperature recovery as clouds will be slow to
clear, probably late in the day. High temperatures Monday will
have trouble getting past 40 degrees.
The coldest air will be in place for Tuesday through Thursday,
with clear skies much of that time. Hard freeze conditions look
likely for most of the area, with the freeze line reaching all but
far lower Plaquemines Parish Tuesday morning. Have undercut
blended guidance on temperatures for most of the period, and am
running lower than neighboring offices, but some guidance
indicating even this may not be low enough. Would note, however,
that operational GFS and ECMWF are some of the coldest members of
their respective ensembles. A repeat of Tuesday morning low
temperatures (and Hard Freeze Warnings) is likely on Wednesday
morning. Slight moderation on Thursday, and a little more on
Friday. However, expect morning lows below freezing for almost all
of the area for Tuesday through Friday.