12/28 – Payton’s Thursday Night Forecast

Frontal zone will remain over the gulf through Saturday. Surface
high will build southeast to the Eastern Seaboard with associated
ridge axis southwest to the northwest gulf. This feature will
maintain a northerly flow decreasing in wind speeds through
Saturday. Upper level flow will become more northwesterly as a
clipper deepens the main trough over the Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic states going into Friday. This feature will finally
displace moisture south of the forecast area tonight through early
Saturday. Will maintain a dry forecast for this periods. 18

For latter part of Saturday and next week, mid range models have
come slightly closer together for Sunday and Monday. Upper level
flow will become more westerly. Surface low/inverted trough will
develop along the old boundary over northwest gulf late Saturday.
Moisture will spread across south half of Louisiana and eventually
Southern Mississippi Saturday night. Light rain will break out
Saturday night and becoming scattered to numerous Sunday. Another
surge of cold air is expected to enter the area Sunday morning
with freezing temps 32F entering the area across the northwest
zones late Sunday evening. However, moisture and precip will exit
southeast before the arrival of sub-freezing temps Sunday night
after midnight. After several runs of precip moving before cold
air enters, we have removed freezing or frozen precip across the
forecast area Sunday night through Monday morning. Strong cold air
advection on dry northerly winds will decrease rain chances
Monday morning.

A 1048mb will settle over Iowa Monday night with strong cold air
advection expanding south the gulf Coast. An embedded strong short
wave will dive southeast in the northwest flow bring some moisture
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The main
trough will remain anchored along the east coast with several
waves maintaining lower thickness values across the forecast area
next Tuesday through next Friday. Several areas across the
northern zones will experience a hard freeze for several mornings
of next week and few locales in south may experience a hard freeze
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

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