12/13 – Rob’s “POTENTIALLY WET” Afternoon Forecast
The main forecast issue for the entire 7 day period will be in the next 18 hours of the forecast, with at least some potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall this afternoon/evening.
Southeast winds continue to moisten the airmass which should still be strong enough to bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, to the area beginning later this morning. The associated surface low is forecast to track through central Louisiana and Mississippi before slowly moving east by Saturday.
The best potential for SEVERITY Will be this afternoon into this evening.
The best instability will be well to the northwest with the upper low, and over the Gulf of Mexico…where the heaviest of rainfall is expected. The SPC has continued the Marginal Risk across the area. Rainfall totals will have the potential to reach 1-2 inches through tonight as the warm front, then cold front moves through the area. The upper low tracking across the area will keep low clouds in the area on Friday, with patchy light rain or drizzle possible into at least early Saturday. We could see some sunshine by late in the day Saturday, but not much before then. Temperatures will trend near seasonal today and tonight with the warmer air sitting just off shore. Expect slightly cooler high temperatures Friday into Saturday…with slight warmer temps Sunday into next week.