11/30 – Rob Knight’s “SEVERE THREAT” Forecast

Isolated showers will affect the area this afternoon with a warm front poised to move in this evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms through the region late this evening and overnight.

the concern is that one or two t-storms will have to potential to bring severe winds and even tornadoes.

It appears that the window for this will be around the 9PM -3AM time frame.

Overall confidence is low in the forecast tonight, but feels like the severe potential is on the lower end, it just appears to be too many things that can keep severe weather from occurring. The next small window for strong to severe storms appears to be in the morning Saturday. This will actually be associated with the main cold front it will bring into the area. Overall forcing increases through the morning hours and as the cold front approaches, along with some possible early morning day time heating as a few additional t-storms may fire.

The activity should end from west to east late morning and through the early afternoon hours with a quiet and mostly dry forecast Saturday night and through the first half of the day Sunday. Cold front will make it to the coast and stall there late Saturday.

Sunday will bring an increase in shower activity late in the day with numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms Sunday night. The cold front will push east during the day Monday with a strong cold air mass moving south-southeast across the Plains Monday and Monday night setting the stage for a much colder forecast next week.

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