10/19 – Rob’s BEAUTIFUL “Friday-Eve” Forecast

At the surface, high pressure off the Virginia coast extends southwestward into east Texas. An upper-level area of high pressure is currently centered over the Great Plains States. Only some high cloudiness moving across the area this morning with cool…but slightly warmer temperatures.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move eastward over the next couple of days. This will allow moisture levels to finally increase as easterly winds gain a southerly component. We could start to see at least scattered showers south of the sound and west of lake Pontchartrain as early as Friday night, with showers/t-storms becoming likely across much of the area by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s through Saturday, which is about 5-8 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will gradually moderate, with all areas in the 60s to lower 70s by Saturday morning. This is a good 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October.

Unfortunately, while the short term part of the forecast was fairly straightforward, the long term portion is not. As a surface cold front approaches, the atmosphere will begin to destabilize with areas of fog beginning Saturday morning before rain begins to move into the region. As the cold front approaches our western region, multiple impulses will move across the area providing for showers/t-storms…the first of which should affect the area late Saturday afternoon. Sunday will bring much more in the way of activity with models suggesting a “SLIGHT THREAT” for a few t-storms to become SEVERE during the day and into Sunday evening. The boundary will push east Monday with activity lingering during the morning hours before partial clearing begins Monday afternoon…

 

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