10/18 – Payton’s Wednesday Afternoon Forecast
An area of high pressure is centered near Washington, DC this morning with an axis southwestward into east Texas. No significant cloud cover or precipitation is across the area. Away from direct marine influences, temperatures are generally in the 50s and 60s early this morning. High-pressure aloft will build into the area for Thursday and Friday, so little in the way of precipitation through Friday. Not really much difference in high temperature guidance through Friday, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see highs a degree or two above seasonal average going into the weekend.
As high-pressure aloft and at the surface moves eastward, onshore flow will become more established over the weekend. This will allow moisture to return, with precipitation to return over the weekend as an upper trough moves out of the Rockies. Several impulses will wrap around the trough, aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms each day until the upper trough passes. Showers and t-storms will affect the viewing area as early as Saturday afternoon through Monday as a cold front pushes to the east. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through the weekend with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Cooler weather arrives at midweek.
The tropics continue to be quiet.