10/26 – The Chief’s “Beautiful Autumn Conditions” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A cold front east of the area continue to move east as high pressure to the NW will shape the short term forecast. Most of the local area is as much as 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The next strong disturbance is well to the west, moving onto the Pacific Coast this morning.

The upper flow is expected to remain zonal across the area today and tonight before the Pacific Coast disturbance reaches the southern Rockies tomorrow. This will cause the upper flow to become southwesterly, and the surface flow easterly to southeasterly by late in the day Thursday. Expect little or no cloud cover through the daytime hours tomorrow, although a few cirrus can’t be ruled out late in the day tomorrow across the west.

The western disturbance will be in the southern Rockies Thursday afternoon will move eastward on Friday across Texas before tracking northeastward into northern Louisiana Saturday. Moisture values won’t start to increase until Thursday night, and won’t even reach 1 inch until midday Friday. Friday should see a gradual increase in upper level clouds, with rain chances increasing from the west by sunset Friday, but forecast soundings won’t be supportive of thunder at that point.

I can’t rule out some elevated t-storms late Friday night or Saturday morning before drying upper levels preclude even that by late in the day Saturday. Looks to be a decent opportunity for much needed rainfall with this system, around 1-1.5 inches (with locally higher amounts), but nowhere near wiping out the rainfall deficit that we’ve accumulated over the last 6 weeks or so.

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