1/24 – The Chief’s “Severe Potential Tonight” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A warm front will lift out of the gulf and move over the area around noon today. This front will allow some showers/t-storms to develop by the afternoon hours. The environment will be continually changing with respect to dynamics and moisture.

This scenario would normally be a home run hit out of the ball park for severe wx. But the window will be tight to get this surface based. However, it depends on exactly where the line of storms is when it moves through the area. Dry air in the mid-levels of eh atmosphere found ahead of and moving in rapidly behind this line as well. This would cause very strong downdrafts to occur along the entire line. Most of this wind would not reach the surface until after 6 PM but gradient winds will already be quite high so it wouldn’t take much to reach the surface to cause a problem. This changes once the line can be surface based around or after 6 PM today. When most of this wind can reach the surface, the line should easily produce winds in excess of 50 mph.

Very high rain rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour over about an hour could cause some flooding issues for a few locations, but the pace of this line will be quite fast so widespread flooding does not look to be the biggest issue with this line. We will hold off on a flash flood watch for now as the main issue is already being highlighted. Once the front clears the area it will flush dew pts and temps rapidly. Winds become northwest and will remain moderate/strong for some areas before easing Thursday.

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