9/23 – Rob Knight’s “Potential SEVERE” Extended Forecast

Strong tropical moisture which continues to move into the area will continue through Friday. Additionally, tides continue to be impactful on the coastal areas with the persistence of E/SE winds. The area will be on the east/south side of the track of Beta’s remnants. This will put the area under a MARGINAL THREAT for SEVERITY Thursday…with a few rotating cells with isolated tornadoes possible.

By Friday, the remnants of Beta should be somewhere around Huntsville, Alabama and pulling away from the area. Models show significant drying moving into the area, with noticeably lower dew points. However, an upper-level weakness is expected to remain over the area through the weekend. Models show very little in the way of precipitation this weekend but beyond, differences creep into the forecast regarding moisture availability ahead of what looks to be a fairly strong late September cold front that arrives somewhere around Tuesday.

After next week’s frontal passage, I wouldn’t rule out some northern sections of the area dipping into the 50s for overnight lows as we get into the middle and end of next week.

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