9/18 – Rob Knight’s Friday Morning “Cooler” Forecast
Weak high-pressure over Florida this morning gradually reforms over Mississippi by the end of the weekend as Tropical Depression 22 creeps northward over the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper level moisture will continue to stream northeastward into the area. It’s going to be a battle between upper level moisture and low level dry air being advecting into the area from the northeast due to the circulation around the surface high. What this means locally is abundant high cloud cover becoming prevalent through the weekend for much of the area, especially near and south of the Interstate 10-12 corridors. Could be some light rain across the southern half of the area at times through the weekend, but any heavy rain looks to remain offshore for the most part, with any significant threat of lightning also remaining over the Gulf of Mexico.
With a persistent moderate easterly flow (around 20 mph) setting up over the coastal waters beginning Saturday morning, tide levels will increase near east-facing shorelines late in the weekend.
Current TD 22 is forecast to remain near the Texas coast through much or all of the work week next week. With a surface high off to the northeast, and the TD along the Texas coast, this will keep a persistent easterly flow across the area. While the frontal boundary is likely to remain offshore, there is at least some potential for one or two surges of significant precipitation onshore somewhere around Tuesday or Wednesday, with the main threat to the south of the Interstate 10 corridor. It should be noted that the eventual track of current TD 22 is a highly uncertain forecast.