8/28 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast.

Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to be the main weather feature impacting the forecast through Wednesday as the system slowly moves offshore today and eventually pushes back inland near Houston tomorrow. The system is then projected to slowly push N/NE into northwest Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday. Current satellite and radar indicates that dry air is beginning to wrap around the system, this will greatly limit the amount of reorganization and strengthening the system can achieve as it moves over the warm and moist Gulf waters. Today will bring fairly decent activity to the N’tern Gulf with the possibility for some locally heavy downpours. Heading into tonight, the activity should decrease a bit as the rain bands become more concentrated near the center of the low. Rain chances fall to 30 to 50 percent.

All of the model guidance agrees that tomorrow and Wednesday should be the wettest day of the week in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi as the tropical system moves along the Texas coast and throws some outer rain bands across the region. These rain bands could produce some locally heavy rainfall, a flash flood watch may needed later today if conditions still look favorable for higher rain amounts to occur through the day on Tuesday and even into Tuesday night. Wednesday will be a day of transition as some drier mid-level air finally wrapping around the system and pushing across the forecast area. This drier airmass will result in lower rain potential headlining into the Labor Day Weekend…

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