8/28 – Rob’s Wednesday Morning Forecast

Temps will hot today ahead of a cold front. The name is somewhat illusive because there won`t be any cold with it. But there will be dry air, which will feel better especially mornings and evenings. Heat index values look to climb into the 106 to 110 range which will prompt a heat advisory to be issued. This will likely be for a relatively small area of the gulf south just ahead of the front where compressional heating is able to provide extra heating and moisture can accumulate. Not every location will reach the 108 or higher reading which could be from cloud cover or frontal passage too early or both. But many locations should be able to reach or break this level today. Dry air Thursday should keep an advisory from being issued. This will be a welcome change as this is not common for this time of year. A few days to dry out before the next surge of deep moisture moves back into the area. The system bringing this moisture back is currently located over SE GA this morning.

A very weak surface low along the front located over SE GA this morning will move offshore then southward to southern FL by Thursday before turning west and moving out over the central gulf. This is the feature that causes the moisture along and ahead of the old frontal boundary to invade the area by Sunday. This is also the time frame that Dorian should be approaching the FL east coast. The frontal zone will still be located along the northern gulf through the coastal bend of FL and up the eastern seaboard which will continue to make the forecast a tough call more than 3 to 5 days out concerning Dorian. All models begin to spread quite a bit as Dorian approaches the northern Bahamas and begins to interact with the upper troughing over the east coast. The next 3 days will be important to watch how this storm proceeds and hopefully some uniformity starts to show up in model solutions as Dorian approaches the northern Bahamas.