8/22 – The Chief’s “VERY Wet Pattern” Monday Morning Forecast
A broad upper disturbance across the eastern half of the country doesn’t really go anywhere over the next several days. As minor disturbances move through the base of the major feature, they will trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day. Moisture flow values remain high, in excess of 2 inches at many/most locations, and don’t see any indications of them dropping off much through Wednesday (and beyond).
For today, considering the forecast convective temperatures and lack of a well-defined impulse moving through, the morning hours look to be comparatively dry, with most of the convection really not getting things going until about midday. There may be a brief window for gusty winds with the storms this afternoon across northern portions of the area. As has been the case for a couple weeks, efficient warm rainfall processes could produce isolated 2-3 inch/hour rates causing problems if they occur over urban areas.
Tomorrow and Wednesday don’t look a lot different than today. A few models depict a more organized complex of thunderstorms moving across the local area during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow with another disturbance moving through the base of the trough. Quite a bit of variation in high temperature guidance; this is related to timing of t-storm development. This wet pattern will continue through the workweek and into the weekend.