8/20 – Rob’s Tuesday Morning Forecast

Not a lot of change to rain chances this afternoon, which will keep temps from getting too warm as well. Deep moisture still resides over the area and this will continue to help produce some very heavy rainfall with the strongest thunderstorms. Moisture values will stay elevated through the atmosphere setting the stage for a repeat from yesterday. Severe Weather numbers still not impressive but this environment will be hospitable toward waterspout activity.

An easterly wave is just exiting the west coast of FL this morning. This is the feature that helps bring a large area of moisture out of the western Caribbean into the gulf by Tue night into Wed. The wave basically acts as an interface or conduit for the moisture to be transported toward the northwest while the wave moves westward. The deep moisture finally makes its way to the NW gulf Thu night into Friday. By the weekend, this moisture spreads along the gulf coast possibly as far east as Pensacola. The nature of this moisture will be tropical so PW values will be quite high and could lead to some flooding issues over the weekend for some areas along the gulf coast, but at the moment, it is too soon to tell which areas that will be.

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