8/17 – Rob’s “Higher Heat Index” Morning Forecast
Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression drifting north-northeast through western Georgia. Meanwhile along the northern Gulf coast, we remain parked underneath light westerly flow aloft upstream from the western section of departing TS Fred. Winds from the southwest will spread over the entire area throughout the day today which will help to bring back a steady increase in moisture. The typical summertime pattern will dominate with mostly clear skies in the morning with clouds developing late morning into afternoon. Daytime heating will induce afternoon showers/t-storms.
Confidence continues to increase in a rather hot period coming at the end of the workweek through the weekend, and into next week. There likely won’t be a lot of convection to help keep temps in check. The concern turns towards the heat index and the likelihood of seeing values from 105-110. Combine that with very light winds at the surface and morning lows ranging from the mid-70s to lower 80s and the conditions will be quite oppressive.
As for Grace, this is becoming a far less concern. Grace may struggle to even maintain tropical status and could degenerate into an open wave but even if it doesn’t the ridge sitting overheard will keep Grace well to the south and moving west.