8/13 – Rob’s “Tracking The Tropics” Friday Morning Forecast

The forecast today through the weekend will be similar to the last few days however there is one hiccup that may keep convection from being as widespread. High-pressure in the western Atlantic and over the western CONUS west of the Continental Divide leave somewhat of a weakness over the Lower MS Valley region. This should allow for convection to develop each day as we heat up but one issue is possible drier air.

This may have a bigger impact on today’s rain coverage. Drier air could keep things a little more scattered with the highest best chance for rain west of the Pearl River. Going into Saturday models continue to suggest the relatively drier air will still be over the area but the difference is we could see moisture advection occurring and with moisture on the increase rain chances may be a little better across the area.

Sunday looks like the deeper moisture will finally be back over the region again and with Fred possibly in the eastern Gulf. Focus is on Fred but overall at this time not expecting any significant impacts given the current forecast. If that changes and the forecast pushes west then impacts could increase over portions of the area.

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