7/9 – Rob’s “Tropical Update” Tuesday Morning Forecast
TUESDAY: It will be another scorcher this afternoon and surface heating and elevated moisture will once again yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Many ares will continue to have heat index issue with values in the 106 to 112 degree range.
TROPICS: The main issue of this forecast is the possible development of closed low over the northeast gulf. NHC is currently setting the potential development of a tropical system at 80% chance Wednesday through Friday. Surface low over Georgia is forecast to sag south and along with the upper low over central Alabama. Both features move over northeast gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This falls in line with NHC forecast with a closed low over extreme northeast Gulf. I will insert 60 to 80 percent chance of rain for western zones Friday night through Saturday night. As a result, rainfall amounts have been updated 3 to 5 inches inland and 5 to 8 inches along the coast for the event. In addition, prolong east flow will allow water to pile into tidal lakes and some coastal flooding is possible Thursday through Saturday. At this time, the system is forecast to move west. However, rain chances will remain in play through next week.