7/16 – Rob Knight’s “Elevating Rain Chances” Friday Morning Forecast

A very normal Summer pattern is expected through Saturday night...

A very normal Summer pattern is expected through Saturday night. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Moisture values will be near normal and the convective pattern will be very diurnal. Convection will initiate along the seabreeze/landbreeze boundary each day with thunderstorms initially forming along the weak landbreeze boundary in the offshore waters and then gradually moving inland through the day as a seabreeze boundary forms and intensifies. The convection should begin to wane in the late afternoon and early evening hours with little to no precip forecast by late evening. Rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per hour with some of the storms, so the prospect of localized street flooding issues will be present each day.

The pattern will become a bit more interesting by early next week, as an elongated disturbance will extend across the Tennessee Valley and into the southern Plains. This disturbance should remain well north of the area, but a weak surface front will stall near or over the forecast area for the early to middle portion of the week. There is some uncertainty on exactly where the boundary will stall, but the current thinking is somewhere between the I-10 and I-20 corridors. With this boundary in close proximity or over the region, a focus for increased convection will be present.

The threat of locally high rainfall rates and potential street flooding issues will remain present through the long term period.

Given the increased convective chances next week, temperatures should be slightly cooler than average in the mid-upper 80s. Overall, a slightly wetter and slightly cooler pattern is expected for early next week.

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