7/14 – The Chief’s “Warm & Humid Flow” Thursday Morning Forecast

A broad upper level high pressure centered near the 4-Corners region extends from Mexico to Canada and CA to around MS. It will generally be in centered this position through this forecast period. The eastern portion of the ridge is being eroded as an upper disturbance digs south across the Great Lakes to the Appalachian Mountains. That trough tried to bring a front to the area but doesn’t appear it will ever make it here. Adding more complexity to the setup, there’s also the Bermuda high pressure extending into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico and a weakness between it and the ridge to the west. Abundant moisture exists along the western edge of the Bermuda ridge from the northern Gulf of Mexico…northeastward towards the Carolinas.

Models depict very weak surface disturbance across the local area, which may try to enhance convection today. For 3-4 days in a row, models have been over forecasting coverage. The main concern with any storms today will be hourly rainfall rates which could be quite intense…on the order of 2 to 4″ in an hour. If any of the stronger storms develop over urban areas, could see some flash flooding.

On Friday and Saturday, Medium range models show the eastern edge of the upper ridge centered to the west trying to expand farther east. This would suppress t-storm development, especially on the northern half of the area. The long term portion of the forecast is fairly consistent from day to day and fairly summer-like. This time of year, if there’s not a strong high pressure right over the area, it’s going to be rainy.

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