6/6 – The Chief’s “Summertime Pattern” Monday Morning Forecast

Today will fall into that bracket of typical summer thermal showers and thunderstorms. There won’t be as many around as yesterday. And whereas yesterday was a bit easier in pointing out roughly where these were going to be, today will not be as easy. The best probabilities for getting activity will be the Miss gulf coast starting this morning. This crop should dissipate through the morning daylight hours and the next should start again this afternoon/evening.

The extended forecast will start off rather warm and dry but should quickly turn wet and due to increasing cloud cover and rain slightly cooler but not by much. Fairly good agreement from all of the guidance leading to a high confidence forecast. Thursday should be the last real warm day. The eastern fringes of the ridge will likely hold strong through the day before a disturbance digs in across the eastern CONUS eroding the eastern portions of the high pressure. There is a very small chance of a few locations topping out around 97 but that will be highly dependent on the development of clouds and convection.

Thursday should be dry and mostly cloud free allowing temps to climb. However a faster scenario will likely lead to afternoon convection and highs not reaching what is currently forecast. Friday and through the weekend will be far more active as we will move under northwest flow. Each disturbance will be capable of producing storms.

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