6/5 – Rob Knight’s “TS Cristobal Track” Weekend Forecast
Southeasterly surface winds will help to advect moisture and warm air into the area. Larger scale upper level divergence will help to enhance instability in the environment as well over time. As a result, showers and storms are possible.
Tropical Depression Cristobal is currently over upper Campeche State of Mexico and is forecast to continue moving northward into the central Gulf this afternoon/evening.
Satellite imagery continues to show a well-defined broad circulation that remains intact, which would suggest favorable conditions for redevelopment once emerging over water. This will aid in transporting deeper tropical moisture northward over time. As a result, there is a potential for heavy rainfall Saturday, particularly closer to the coast and along gulf and lake breeze boundaries. The center is forecast to reach our area by Sunday evening into Monday morning. Regardless, impacts will be felt well outside of the central cone of uncertainty. There is a likelihood for coastal flooding due to higher tides and persistent southeasterly winds. The highest tide cycles are expected to be Sunday and Monday. In addition to coastal flooding, tropical storm force winds are possible across our area beginning as early as Saturday evening and most likely beginning by Sunday mid-day and could persist through Monday. As the storm approaches, there is the possibility for feeder bands to develop, and tropical funnels and tornadoes will be more apt to develop.