6/2 – Rob Knight’s “Very Hot Short Term” Morning Forecast

Not a lot of change as all indications for a frontal boundary to sag into the area and stall through Saturday. The interaction between the Caribbean system and the upper synoptic trough to our NW is beginning to cause a strongly subsiding profile over the central and northern gulf enhancing the surface high-pressure and now starting to cut off the deep tropical moisture transport into the area.

The stalling system will provide the extra focus along with heating to provide a diurnal mix of showers/t-storms as moisture will still be available from the northern coastal areas. Some of these thunderstorms can become strong or even briefly severe the next several days under this northerly upper level flow. The outflow from the complex over NE TX today could kick off a line of showers/t-storms along it which would add an extra emphasis to getting more than one strong/severe thunderstorm. Another such complex feature looks to move into the area Sunday with the same attributes.

The front could stall near or over the northern portion of the area before slowly dissipating. But it will give a focus to a majority of the activity over the next few days. By Saturday evening, upper flow over the local area will be northwesterly, as system coming out of Mexico moves across Florida. The typical summertime patter on afternoon t-storms will continue next week.

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