6/12 – Rob’s “Wet” Tuesday Morning Forecast
Not much difference from yesterday to today, as microburst numbers remains high…meaning t-storms will have the capability of collapsing and bringing strong winds to the area. Most thunderstorms should be able to produce 25 to 30 mph but there should be a few that reach that severe threshold. Models show a good scattering of thunderstorm activity today. They also agree with the synoptic models with a good bit of activity developing along lake and outflow boundaries.
Some of this activity will have good opportunity to become strong if not severe with very heavy rainfall.
Storm motion will be very little today so an added feature will have to be the possibility of localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as some of these thunderstorms may persist through their life cycle over the same area.
This daily cycle of thunderstorm activity looks to hang on into the weekend. This is when the large area of tropical moisture moves into the western gulf. TPC is showing a 20% chance of something developing associated with this. We will continue to concern ourselves with where this deep moisture plume comes ashore. This looks like it will be at least over the upper Texas and SW Louisiana coast. There continues to be hints of some of this moisture making its way into SE Louisiana as well by the weekend.