5/16 – The Chief’s “Summertime Pattern” Tuesday Morning Forecast

More of the same summer-like weather will persist today despite the mid-level high pressure gradually waning. Convective temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be met by around noon and we will see thunderstorms begin to pop up again, largely focused along the lake and sea-breezes initially before propagating outward via cold pool and outflow boundary collisions. Highest rain chances are focused in coastal MS due to the light westerly flow at the surface focusing initial convective development on the east side of Lake Pontchartrain.

Thunderstorms that develop will be limited by the lack of wind shear, but the forecast soundings are indicative of a thermal environment favorable for downbursts with stronger updrafts. In addition to frequent lightning with these storms, downbursts are capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours over localized areas thus it’s important to stay vigilant when outdoors or driving when these thunderstorms develop during the afternoon hours.

On Wednesday, the combination of a weak disturbance from the subtropical jet stream and another weakness in the pattern digging into the northeastern CONUS will provide modest reprieve from the heat with increased cloud cover, slightly lower temperatures, and enhanced afternoon thunderstorm coverage.