5/15 – Payton’s Tuesday Afternoon Forecast
Another hot hot day, and it’s a little early in the season for this kind of intensity, as was well published with yesterday’s record high temps. Today will be much the same. This is being caused by two regions of lift on either side of our area. The air from both these systems lift has to come down somewhere. As it descends, compressional heating causes the air to dry and obviously heat up. We are located where this air is sinking at the moment. This will slowly change once the surface low moves northeast and we begin to get more cloud cover.
Models remain consistent at not developing the surface low in the gulf and it is pretty obvious why. The shear is extensive over the system and a lot of dry air is making its way into the southern area of the low. These variables will continue to block development and will actually cause the low to fill over time. But at least it is close enough to our area to get a few showers and thunderstorms going for some much needed rain. Any thunderstorms that develop could be on the strong side with gusty winds being the primary threat.