4/27 – The Chief’s “SEVERE POTENTIAL” Thursday Morning Forecast

A weakening upper low currently moving through the Central Plains will continue east across the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. With increasing low level moisture, cooling in the mid-upper levels, and still warm temps at the surface, there will be a steady increase in instability. Model soundings show minimal low level shear but sufficient mid-level shear to possibly support organized cells. This, along with very freezing level will be a prime setup for large hail. Other sounding parameters show quite a bit a dry air aloft which would enhance damaging downdraft wind potential. This would be more so a potential for line of storms moving in from the west this morning. Before it gets here, latest radar shows convection developing well ahead of the line to the west. Some of these storms may be severe as current environment is quite unstable for early morning hours. For heavy rainfall and flash flooding perspective, greatest threat will likely come mid-morning as line of storms coming in from the west merges with more discrete cells ahead of it…mainly along the I-10/12 corridor. Upwards of 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible in isolated locations.

Slightly more uncertainty for afternoon time frame as some models suggest a secondary swath of rain moving in from the west. Other parameters don`t show this. I have kept precip chances at 20-40 this afternoon to account for that potential.

After an uneventful Friday with continued above normal temps, another upper low will drop out of the Rockies and swing across the lower Mississippi River Valley this upcoming weekend. Run to run model consistency remains low during this period, thus uncertainty is high. Models continue to flip/flop on whether the local area sees high coverage or is dry-slotted. General consensus is that we’ll see a modest amount of coverage.