3/18 – Rob Knight’s “Sunny & Mild” Extended Forecast

Strong subsidence and dry air advection in the wake of a departing upper level disturbance will keep a dry forecast in place through the entire short term period. Deep layer northwest flow will also allow for an extended period of cold air advection, and this will keep temperatures cooler than average through Saturday night. Lingering low level moisture trapped beneath this inversion will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through much of the period. Winds will be fairly breezy today as the region continues to feel the influence of a strong surface low passing through the Tennessee Valley, but wind speeds are expected to remain well below wind advisory criteria. The pressure gradient will begin to gradually ease tonight into tomorrow allowing for lighter northerly flow the rest of the short term period.

High-pressure will build over the area on Sunday and continue to influence the region through Monday. Increasing subsidence will bring clear skies and warmer temperatures to the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will climb back to more normal levels for late March.

Conditions are expected to become more unsettled on Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday as a broad upper level disturbance will dominate the Plains states. The forecast area will remain on the southeast periphery of this disturbance, but this will place the area in a favorable region for t-storm development. The first of these impulses is expected to slide through the area on Tuesday, and have a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

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