Well, looks like our relatively dry period will be coming to an end for the foreseeable future. Starting with today, subsidence aloft will weaken as the ridge begins the start of its breakdown. This should allow for daytime heating to spark of scattered showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradient of lower to higher precip chances from east to west because the ridge is centered west of the area. That means east of I-55 should see the most coverage. Convection should knock off quickly after sunset.
A weak upper level trough will track east across the mid-section of the country Wednesday and gradually deepen as it moves across the eastern third of the CONUS. The will continue the process of breaking down the ridge that was over the local area. A weaker ridge will allow for higher coverage and the Wednesday-Friday forecast shows that with rain chances ranging from 50% to 70%.
The driver of this weekend and beyond forecast looks to be the evolution of the tropical feature currently in the bottom of the Bay of Campeche. A few models have a weak low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile the NHC forecast suggests a slower progression northward. Either way, it’s good to get hurricane supplies stocked up now because it’s just the beginning of hurricane season.