A large low pressure system will move E/NE through the 4-points regions and into the central/southern Plains region today. At the same time, a warm, deep layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. states gradually slides east to the eastern seaboard. A cold front associated with low pressure system is expected to approach the northwest portion of the forecast area Thursday afternoon then push through the forecast area and off the coast Thursday night and through the offshore coastal waters Friday.
Breezy and warm conditions are expected as southeast to south winds rise to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts on Wednesday. It is possible a wind advisory may be necessary for portions of the area.
Regarding severe weather potential, A squall line of showers and thunderstorms should approach the northwest portion of the forecast area northwest of Baton Rouge into the SW Mississippi delta region tonight. While the strongest storms will be moving north of the forecast area, there will be sufficient instability to support some stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms. Models suggest most of the threat will be north and west of our area through Wednesday night, but then the frontal band of t-storms will move into and through the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. While a warm and unstable airmass will be in place Thursday, the instability will decrease during the morning to around midday, so it is likely any chance for a few stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms will be mostly during the earlier part of the day rather than later.
An overrunning pattern will be in place behind the cold front on Friday, so it appears minor disturbances in the west-southwest flow aloft will spark elevated convection with showers mixed with rainfall in cool air Friday and Friday night.