2/27 – Rob’s “Potentially Wet” Extended Forecast

It’s an absolute mess of a weather pattern heading into the weekend. Very wet conditions, but fortunately the rainfall is spread out over time and space with a large feature to our SE.  The strongest instability is slowly moving east and offshore this morning. This is also where the most vigorous supercells are located at the moment.

  • Another system is expected to develop again near the Toledo Bend Reservoir area of western Louisiana and move east and affect our area once again tonight. Most of tonight’s rain looks to stay farther north than where it is occurring this morning.
  • Yet another of these features will develop over SE TX Thursday afternoon/evening and move east affecting the entire area Thursday night.

Friday night into Saturday morning looks to be the driest period but there will still be some showers around during that time frame. Saturday will see showers/t-storms develop well ahead of and along a cold front that should move through late in the day Sunday. With each of these features, it would not be surprising to see SPC keep the area in marginal risk for severe until the front passes Sunday. The main cold front that moves through Sunday will have quite cold air with it.

A cold rain will move back to the area for Monday night into Tuesday morning. It is this time frame that will need to be watched over the northern-most part of the area as moisture is brought back over a cold dry air mass. There is a non-zero probability of some

portion of Hattiesburg to observe some type of wintry PRECIPITATION late Monday night into early Tuesday before the moisture is forced back to the south

as the jet pulse moves east by noon Tuesday.

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