2/22 – Rob’s Continued Warm/Humid Forecast

An upper level ridge is currently centered north of the Bahamas and extends into the Bay of Campeche, and will remain there through the end of this week. The ridge will expand NW slightly today as a weak disturbance north of the area lifts. This will bring more subsidence over the area, thus limiting rainfall today.

The lack of rain today will be a short lived as weak disturbance draws moisture north Friday, enhancing shower and thunderstorm coverage. Increased pops into the 50 to 70% range to account for this. The main upper trough axis currently west of the Rockies will finally lift northeast and race across the midsection of the country this weekend. This will send a front through the forecast area early Sunday morning. It still appears that the boundary will stall as it moves east of the area. Higher rain chances will persist into Sunday night. Monday`s rain chances will depend on if the front gets nudged offshore or stays put.

The ridge that was north of the Bahamas will then shift west towards the southern Gulf of Mexico. This may or may not put the area in conducive area for persistent shower and thunderstorm development early next week.

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