2/20 – Rob Knight’s “SEVERE THREAT” Morning Forecast
Light to moderate rain continues to develop this morning over almost all areas. The main line is well ahead of the cold front at the moment while the cold front is just passed Alexandra La. We have a HUGE temperature contrast through the region with the upper 40s to the NW…low 70s to the SE. The front will slowly make its way to a Biloxi-Belle Chasse line where it will stall just before daylight Thursday morning, roughly 26 hours to get there from where it is now. Training rainfall will occur throughout the day well ahead of and along the front and this is already occurring. These rates should get a bit higher through the day, but not necessarily over the same locations, especially as the frontal boundary moves into the area.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the entire area under a marginal risk of excessive and a sliver of the northeast region in a slight risk (H’Burg). Area wide should see 1 to 2 inches through Friday with locally higher amounts possible. If this falls within a short time, then some flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas would occur.
The main SEVERE THREAT will be strong straight line winds with the possibility for isolated tornadic activity as well. The showers/t-storms continue on and off through the end of the workweek…