2/10 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Pattern Continues” Afternoon Forecast
The current setup will continue to produce muggy and warm conditions locally. Expect another day with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Ample moisture already in place combined with a weak stalled front draped across central LA will be all that’s needed to spark convection today.
Moving into Thursday, the disturbance currently located southwest of CA will track eastward into southern Texas. This will cause the front in central Louisiana to slowly push south into the area. Expect nearly 100% coverage with a mix of showers and thunderstorms. Some areas could see an inch or 2 of rainfall throughout the day. This will be the last day of above normal temps for a while. Cooler air pushing in behind the front will keep highs on Friday down to low 50s and low 60s. Lingering showers will likely persist through probably early afternoon before finally shifting south and east.
The weekend continues to be the most challenging for a couple reasons: those being frozen precip potential and terrible model consistency. The culprit is models trying to resolve weaker shortwaves with broad troughing with bitter cold situated to the north. Don’t feel like there’s much question that there will be precip over the area at some point this weekend and into early next week. It’s just a matter of whether the lower portions of the atmosphere will support anything frozen. We will continue to focus on this…