12/29 – Rob Knight’s “Foggy & Rainy” Morning Forecast

The high pressure remains just east of Florida and we’ll see another impulse moving around the ridge. In the words of SPC, the chance for severe weather is looking very “marginal,” similar to Tuesday. If we get a strong thunderstorm, a damaging wind gust may be possible or small hail but really this looks unlikely. Scattered showers will linger tonight but with instability waning, the severe threat is near zero. Otherwise, highs near 80 and lows in the mid to upper 60s will continue. The synoptic pattern is the same with the upper high-pressure weakening a tiny bit.

The primary threat for the long range forecast is Saturday and Sunday. Thankfully the guidance is in fairly good agreement for this period. For the upper level pattern, models are showing that a low pressure trough from over the SW CONUS moves across the southern US.  With the high pressure over the GOM feeding moisture and warm air advection into the region, this helps to prime our location for storm development.

After the front moves through the region, conditions are fairly pleasant for the next few days. The column dries out pretty quickly and winds shift to the north. While gusty winds will be a concern after the front, this is expected to mainly impact the coastal waters. Min temps are also expected to drop into the upper 20s Monday morning with the low 30s Tuesday morning.

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