12/14 – The Chief’s “ENHANCED Severe Threat” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The main forecast issues for the entire forecast package occur in the first 18 hours of the forecast…today and this evening. Significant severe weather and excessive rainfall threats, especially from the Interstate 10 corridor northward.

A deep upper low centered over Nebraska and a second near the Texas-New Mexico border. A nearly solid line of thunderstorms extended from northeast Mississippi to near Jackson to Lake Charles, now entering the northwest corner of our area. Ahead of the convection, the entire area is in the warm sector with temperatures 70-75F and dew points upper 60s and lower 70s. There have been multiple tornado warnings to our north and west overnight, and as the disturbance lifts northeast that may back surface winds a bit more, making the situation even more conducive for tornadic development. There may be multiple rounds of thunderstorms, producing 2 inch/hour rainfall rates today. Widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts likely, and can’t rule out spot max totals exceeding 6 inches. This system is expected to become more progressive later this afternoon/evening, so an eastward expansion into Harrison and Jackson Counties along the Mississippi coast may not be necessary.

Current indications are that convection should move east of the Mississippi coast by mid evening (9 PM or so), with cooler and drier air behind it.

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