11/3 – Rob’s “Summer-like” November Weekend Forecast

It has been a quiet night for the region. Fog was the main concern overnight, with areas of dense fog along the Southern 6. Forecast thinking really hasn’t changed much over the last few days. A trough of low-pressure currently moving into the ARKLATEX will quickly work east into TN and weaken while the next trough currently moving into the TX/OK panhandles will amplify as it approaches the Lower MS valley this evening. Outside of a few diurnally driven showers we may not see much in the way of rain unless whatever complex develops with the trough of low pressure over north LA today surges south this evening due to cold pooling effects.

Fog is still the greatest concern tonight as conditions will not be much different than what we currently have but one more day of priming the air mass could be what is needed. In fact guidance is far more bullish on fog potential tonight and especially Saturday night. This weekend as the trough of low pressure dives southeast across the eastern Gulf and FL, the mid level ridge will begin to build in over the region.

With each passing day we lose a few more minutes of sunlight and combine that with the lower sun angle and given that the ridge is not anything substantial could be just enough for us to remain just below records. If highs on Monday and Tuesday get to around 85-87 then we should see a few locations break records.

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