11/26 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Cooler conditions will last into Monday as a shortwave trough will push south-southeast through the central Gulf coast region tonight which will maintain a mean mid/upper
level trough across the northeast to southern Gulf of Mexico
through Tuesday. Reinforcing high pressure with cool air will
build over the forecast area tonight making for another chilly
night, but not cold enough for frost. The dry air will warm rather
efficiently as has been the case of late, so expect upper 60s for
highs on Monday with low to mid 70s expected on Tuesday as the
airmass modifies. A mid level shortwave ridge, that is expected to
move over the western to central Gulf coast region Monday night,
will flatten out on Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough moves
fairly quickly east out of the 4 corners region into the southern

This shortwave trough will then likely slow it’s eastward
movement as it progresses into the lower Mississippi valley late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Low level moisture return is
expected to bring in increase in clouds in some areas on Tuesday
and most areas by late Tuesday night. If clouds are slow enough to
increase, then there would be a chance of fog, but confidence is
not high enough to include fog in the forecast at this time,
however have carried a slight chance of showers in the central and
southern zones with higher chances in the Gulf waters to the
south. A slightly better chance (30%-40%) of showers is expected on
Wednesday and Wednesday night due to a combination of the initial
passing shortwave trough and possibly a secondary weaker fast
moving upper impulse in the increased west to west-northwest
flow. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, and there is
still a good chance New Orleans Armstrong International Airport
will end up with the driest November on record. Later this week a rather amplified upper pattern is expected to develop during the period with a deep trough over the west coast to western
states over the weekend with a ridge trying to build over the
Gulf and central Gulf coast. Surface high pressure is also
expected to rebuild over the region after a cold frontal passage
by late Thursday or Thursday night. Shower chances will continue
on Thursday ahead of the front, then no rain is in the forecast
Thursday night through most of Sunday. Temperatures are expected
to remain fairly close to the seasonal normals.

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