11/1 – Payton’s Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

A Warm front to the north of the area continues to slowly lift back to the north this morning as a weak shortwave embedded in the southwest mid level flow approaches the area. Warm advection has already taken advantage of the retreating airmass in the form of light isentropic rains that have developed along and overtop the boundary, mainly over the far northwest sections of the forecast area. As stronger forcing moves into the area today, widespread rain will increase from the west, and should stay primarily to the north and west, but a few isolated showers are possible this afternoon. Convective potential will increase from the southwest during the afternoon as better lapse rates move in aloft. The majority of this should be elevated as the surface remains stable. There will be some potential for storms to become surface based over the far southwest during the mid to late afternoon/early evening as dewpoints surge into the mid/upper 60s. Into the next few days and into the weekend, persistent low level southerly flow in response to a stagnant surface high over the eastern US will continue to provide the ArkLaMiss region with bountiful low level moisture and warm temperatures through the end of the week and into the next work week. Rain chances will decrease a bit on Thursday as drier air filters into the mid and upper levels and Pwat values drop below 1.5″. Models agree that another upper disturbance will swing through the lower MS Valley on Friday into early Saturday. Although only slight moistening will occur ahead of this system, it should provide enough lift to the region to result in some scattered shower/storm activity on Friday afternoon through early Saturday. Upper level heights will begin to increase by Saturday afternoon in response to a strengthening ridge centered over Northern Mexico. Ridging will begin to break down by mid week next week allowing for a cold front to sweep through the region. Temperatures from Thursday through early next week will remain well above normal with highs mainly in the low 80`s.

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