11/14 – The Chief’s “Heavy Rain Tonight” Monday Morning Forecast
The main weather maker for the week is the system that will impact the local area over the next 24 hours. Dry air will modify quickly ahead of a New Mexico disturbance moving east. This disturbance will lift into the middle Mississippi River Valley overnight tonight as a surface frontal wave develops along the front over the northern Gulf of Mexico near the coast. Some question as to how far northward the warm sector progresses, with most of the guidance now coming around to a solution where the low pressure center tracks near or south of Interstate 10 overnight. That would likely limit the threat of any surface based thunderstorms to areas south of I-10, and very possibly remain entirely offshore. However, we could still get some elevated convection to the north of that. The main threat will be heavy rain, and even that is just a brief 6-12 hour window. Considering that conditions have been dry for the last few months (pretty much since Labor Day), widespread 1 to 3 inch rains near the track of the low should produce mainly temporary inconveniences, and might even be welcomed, as long as one doesn’t have outdoor plans overnight tonight. Rain will likely be limited to the Mississippi coast by sunrise Tuesday and well east of the area by noon. We might even get some glimpses of sun by late Tuesday afternoon.
A much drier weather pattern settles into the area for midweek, with surface high pressure centered over Texas by Thursday morning. Texas high pressure will shift eastward to the Appalachians this weekend. No real indications of moisture return through next weekend, or warm air, either. Can’t totally rule out a very light precipitation event next weekend.
Temperatures from Tuesday night onward will be well below normal, 10 degrees or more, for much of the period. After tomorrow, much of the area may struggle to reach 60 degrees before the end of next weekend. The coldest of the days is likely to be Thursday through Saturday, with areas north of Lake Pontchartrain falling below freezing on one or more mornings, probably Friday morning.