10/4 – Rob Knight’s “Rainy Start” Monday Morning/Workweek Forecast

Main forecast question is on rain but it is all related to the development and location of a cutoff low-pressure. This will have some greater impacts on the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday if the low does dig into LA. As for today the main two features we are watching is the fronts progression as it continues to slowly work east-southeast. Moisture is quite and t-storms will likely not be very difficult to come by. The one positive that could keep us from seeing very heavy rain will be instability.

Rather thick cloud cover today should help slow down the warm up and thus we will not maximize the daytime heating. With that there will likely be numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms along and southeast of the area.

Wednesday the low should begin to slowly drift north. These systems are usually quite slow to more out/transition so we could still see that band of moisture draped over coastal MS still leading to one more day of scattered showers. The other little shift noticed is the models did slide back to the east just a tad with the low and that may be enough to allow the drier air to work down the Ms Valley and into the area providing the possibility of very pleasant Thursday morning with lows possibly in the upper 50s across northern portions of the area…

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