1/2 – Rob Knight’s “Continued WET” Morning Forecast

An area of high-pressure is currently over the Bahamas with low-pressure over Arizona. Mid-level moisture will surge northward out of the Bay of Campeche this morning and move between those 2 features. The bulk of the heaviest rain will pass across east Texas, northern Louisiana, and Mississippi. Locally across much the area, showers should be more scattered in nature compared to locations farther north.

That wide swath of rain will begin sagging south and well into the forecast area tonight as the upper low starts quickly moving east, reaching the southern Texas Panhandle tomorrow morning. This low will track right across the area Thursday afternoon, bringing with it numerous showers. This path would keep the area north of the warm sector, so no severe weather to contend with. But it will mean the potential for heavy rain, and with an already saturated ground, FLASH FLOODING will be possible. Models are in general agreement of the potential for 1 to 3 inches.

Strong high pressure will build into the area Friday behind the cold front coming through in the morning. Good radiational cooling from clear skies Friday night combined with falling dew-points will allow temps to drop into the upper-30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. That will pretty much be it for the cold temps, with temps quickly moderating each day this weekend…but finally a few days with no rain chances.

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