09/22 Ryan’s “First Fall Evening” Thursday Forecast
Not much change from the earlier forecast, but the clear skies and cooler temperatures we had on this first Fall evening were certainly more seasonal than the afternoon. Expect another sunny and hot day tomorrow with an increase in cloud cover, but showers are still expected to be hard to come by. Dry air in the mid levels and surface high pressure continue to work together to keep winds light, our air drier, and our skies clearer well into the weekend. We’ll start seeing the return of afternoon showers on Saturday as the high pressure in the SE continues to weaken ahead of an approaching cold front, which is expected to make the beginning of the work week cloudy, stormy, and cooler. There is some model disagreement on whether the front will stall and dissipate or pass through, so there is not much confidence on the forecast sky conditions and rain chances from next Wednesday on. Should the front pass through quickly we can see mid to low 80s temps by Wednesday, but if it lingers it may take a day or two longer.
TS Lisa and Karl continue to move Northwestward into the Central Atlantic and are not expected to impact the Gulf Coast in a meaningful way. We’ll continue to watch a new disturbance just exiting the Western African Coast, but its still days away from significant development.