08/15 Ryan’s “Stormy” Tuesday Forecast
After a stormy afternoon, the showers lingered for a while but once again began to dissipate quickly after sunset. Overall rain totals were low, but there were still some areas that saw over 2 inches throughout the day. The issue with the last few days has been the very light winds in the mid-levels, so as these storms start to grow, they don’t have a driving force behind them and they simply rain themselves out over the same area. While this can lead to some localized flash flooding, it isn’t likely to lead to any large scale flooding. The good news is that a ridge is beginning to move into the area from the West, while an extension of the Bermuda ridge is sliding in from the East, so drier conditions will move in soon.
The tropics remained active today. Hurricane Gert is expected to continue strengthening, likely reaching category 2 status late tomorrow or early Thursday. No significant landfall is likely. Otherwise there are 3 tropical waves with a chance of becoming our next tropical system. The two 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles both have a 40% chance, but only one is pushing far enough West and South to concern South MS at this time. The last area is just now leaving the West Coast of Africa, and has a 20% chance of forming within 5 days.