08/14 Ryan’s “Summer Night” Monday Forecast
Expect another textbook summer night ahead tonight, and another very similar day tomorrow. Temperatures will remain in the low 90s on the waterfront, with inland areas being slightly warmer. Heat indices during this time will likely exceed 100 degrees, but not by much. Showers will stay away through the early morning, but expect showers & t-storms to begin in the late morning and early afternoon. Severe weather is still not expected, but that doesn’t mean it it’s impossible, and a strong (non-severe) thunderstorm can still produce dangerous lightning and locally heavy rains. The rains will likely be the main issue going forward as the ground is already saturated, and water will have no where to go, especially if one of these efficient rain-makers lingers over one area for a time.
The tropics are truly beginning to heat up. TS Gert became Hurricane Gert late this evening, and further strengthening will likely bring it to Category 2 by Wednesday. One model did have Gert reach “major” status, as a Category 3, but this remains an unlikely outlier. Regardless, Gert is expected to turn NE as it intensifies and will become extra-tropical by Thursday as it moves into the Northern Atlantic. Another disturbance a few hundred miles Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 60% chance of becoming our next tropical system as it moves slowly westward, and we’ll continue to monitor it’s development.