7/8 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Pattern Ahead” Friday Morning Forecast

High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern today through Saturday morning. Southerly surface winds will help to advect moisture and warm air into the environment. There will still be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and moisture values are forecast to be elevated above the 75th percentile for this time of year. As a result, any storms that develop will be more efficient with higher rainfall rates possible. Looking at the models, scattered showers and storms will be likely this evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms. Some frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-40 mph) will be possible inside of stronger storms.

Saturday, a frontal boundary will slide into the area. There is still a fair amount of model uncertainty on the timing, but general model consensus has the boundary reaching our area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Moisture values will remain above 2 inches while the boundary is over the area, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible for storms along the boundary. Some stronger storms do look possible inside a small time window overnight Saturday for the northernmost portions of our area.

Sunday through the beginning of next week, there is still a good amount of uncertainty in the models, but at a glance, the boundary is expected to linger over the area and re-fire storms daily, especially during the peak daytime heating hours. In general, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially if training occurs, which seems within the realm of possibility. Or if storms develop over some areas more than others over the course of the week. Some gusty winds could be possible, but likely would be lower in intensity (30-40mph). Frequent lightning will still be a concern inside these storms as well.