12/11 – Rob’s “WARMING TREND” Tuesday Morning Forecast

High pressure to our NW will shift eastward later today, putting the area on the return flow side by tomorrow morning. Overnight lows for Wednesday morning should be several degrees warmer, and no warnings expected at this time. An upper system moving through the Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday is too far north to have any significant impact on the area, as there isn’t insufficient moisture available.

The more important system for the local area will move out of the southern Rockies Wednesday night and be over west Texas Thursday morning and east Texas Thursday night. Moisture will be returning Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a SLIGHT threat for a few t-storms Thursday afternoon/evening to become SEVERE…but it seems like that threat is slowly diminishing. The initial surge of moisture is likely to produce one round of showers/possible storms late Thursday morning into the afternoon, but possibly the better threat for severe weather would be late afternoon/evening as dry push reaches the area.

The STORM PREDICTION CENTER has the area under marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the same period, with expected amounts of 1-2 inches expected for much of the area.

Ground is likely pretty saturated from the rain this past weekend, so this also looks reasonable.

A few showers will continue into Friday morning as the cloud coverage will continue through Friday late afternoon before clearing. The weekend will bring a cool-down but not like this past system.